We expect the FOMC to reduce the target range by 25bp from 4.25-4.50% to 4.00-4.25% at the meeting on September 16-17. This is fully...

**As seen in Online Tools > IMM, get full access now! Despite the weekly reduction, the euro remains heavily favored by speculators,...

**As seen in Online Tools > IMM, get full access now! Speculators reduced net long exposure to the USD across most currencies, with the...

**As seen in Online Tools > IRP, get full access now! Probability of a 25 bp cut (to 4.00%-4.25%): Approximately 90%. This would bring...

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 09/13/25, get full access now! Overall, retail sales showed resilience despite challenges like a...

We have changed our September Bank of Canada forecast from a no change decision to a 25bp cut from 2.75% to 2.50%. This decision is...

Recent economic data has reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut next week. Markets are fully pricing-in a 25bps cut on September...

There is a significant risk that the US government will succeed in undermining the Fed's independence. Our US experts are taking this...

The lower median projections for the fed funds rate in 2025 and 2026 could be fostered by a more dovish composition of the Committee if...

We look for the economy to recover in Q3 as trade balance improves, and gross domestic product growth to become positive after...

The debt markets of Japan, France, the US and the UK have all been in the headlines in recent months.  Within this group, the UK has...

Meanwhile, in France, the main opposition parties have confirmed they will vote against the government in the confidence vote next week...

**Online Tools > FX Factors, get full access now! Carry strategies experienced a slight underperformance in August as the USD's decline...

**Online Tools > IMM, get full access now! The most recent Commitment of Traders (COT) data provides significant insights into market...

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 09/07/25, get full access now! June's 0.4% growth helped avert a Q2 flatline, with GDP 4.5% above...

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 09/07/25, get full access now! Headline inflation eased to 4.58% year-over-year (y/y), down from...

**AS SEEN IN ONLINE TOOLS > IFMO, GET FULL ACCESS NOW! As of September 2025, inflation across the G10 has largely cooled from 2022 peaks...

**AS SEEN IN ONLINE TOOLS > IRP, GET FULL ACCESS NOW! The next FOMC meeting is September 16-17, 2025, with decisions announced at 2:00...

If something unexpected happens between now and the next meeting at the end of the month, the Riksbank could cut the policy rate in...

Fiscal differentiation has been an alpha theme in FX this year. Away from the broad dollar story, owning the likes of CHF, NOK, SEK and...