**As seen in Online Tools > Chart Grid, get full access now! A variety of factors from Fed easing to Eurozone recovery signals have pushed desks to pencil in further upside on the euro, UBS and Morgan Stanley see EUR/USD reaching 1.25 next year. Near-term risks are balanced but tilt downside due to French drama and Fed uncertainty, with volatility likely around Powell's speech. Longer-term (Q4 2025), upside dominates if U.S. easing persists, per consensus forecasts from UBS

**As seen in Online Tools > Inflation Dashboard, get full access now! Both the headline CPI and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, were a tenth of a percentage point lower than anticipated, with monthly increases of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Over a 12-month period, the headline CPI rose by 3.0%, slightly higher than the 2.9% recorded in August, while the core CPI was also 3.0%, showing a decrease from 3.1%. An increase in seasonally adjusted gasoline prices

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 10/17/25, get full access now! Inflation remains above the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) 2% target for over three years, driven by rising food and energy costs, wage pass-through, and a weak yen, but has shown signs of moderation. Headline CPI eased to 2.7% year-over-year (y/y) in August, while core measures (excluding fresh food) hovered around 2.8%. Analysts expect a modest reacceleration in September to ~2.9% core CPI y/y due to sustained livi

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 10/17/25, get full access now ! Due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown (now in its second week), the scheduled September CPI release— originally set for October 15—has been postponed to October 24, 2025. This delay affects not only CPI but also related indicators like Producer Price Index (PPI), which was also due mid-October. In the absence of new data, markets and analysts are relying on nowcasts and August figures for insights. In

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 10/17/25, get full access now! Headline CPI inflation was unchanged at 3.8% Y/y in August, driven by offsetting pressures: rising food and services costs balanced by softer transport (e.g., airfares). Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) eased slightly to 4.7% y/y from 5.0% in July. The BoE anticipates a temporary peak of 4.0% in September 2025, influenced by energy base effects, food price surges, and government-set pri

**AS SEEN IN ONLINE TOOLS > CHART GRID Currently, markets are factoring in 50 basis points of rate cuts from the Fed by December, which could boost risk sentiment and support high-beta currencies like the kiwi in the short term. Additionally, there is talk that the current pricing by the RBNZ might be starting to appear overstretched. The latest output figure fell short of expectations, leading markets to anticipate further easing from the RBNZ. However, persistent inflation

Despite the stretched technicals flagging a short-term reversal in the CHF crosses, traders continue to increase bullish exposure across the front-end of curve. Both 1w and 1m tenors have seen topside franc interest rise. We remind you that the CHF is the best expression in FX to a potential risk selloff in the U.S., I wrote more about it here .

The chart below serves as visual guidance on the extent that the USD/JPY exchange rate has detached from rate differentials. U.S. Treasury 2-year and JGB yield spread are recording the most negative correlation coefficient since 2020. Historically, this negative relationship does not tend to last long. Tuesday session saw a rise on topside structures interest, while hedge funds were reportedly seen buying the spot long. We're far from intervention levels, but the extent of th

**As seen in Online Tools > INF Monitor, get full access now! This week, we will be closely monitoring the release of inflation data from several key economies, including New Zealand, Canada, the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom. These countries are significant players in the global economic landscape, and their inflation statistics can provide valuable insights into broader economic trends. Currently, most of these nations are experiencing inflation rates that ex

*Online Tools > CAL, get full access now! Tuesday session is light in both economic and central bank dockets, however, eyes on inflation as BoC is priced in to deliver further easing.

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 10/17/25, get full access now! Canada's headline inflation remains subdued but ticked up slightly in August amid moderating energy price declines and persistent pressures in shelter and services. The Bank of Canada targets 2% inflation, and these figures show the economy is approaching that goal, though core measures are a bit stickier. Headline CPI rose 1.9% Y/y (up from 1.7% in July), driven by slower declines in gasoline prices. On a mo

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 10/17/25, get full access now!   As of now, inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) 1–3% target band but is trending toward the upper end, driven by administered prices (e.g., council rates), food costs, and energy. The RBNZ projects headline CPI at 3.0% for the September quarter, reflecting temporary pressures, before easing to the 2% midpoint by mid-2026. Headline CPI rose 0.5%Q/q , down from 0.9% in the March q

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 10/17/25, get full access now! China's economy growing at a steady pace, aligning with the government's annual target of "around 5%. The first half to 2025, exceeded economist expectations and reflects resilience amid global trade tensions, up 5.3% Y/y. For further context, full-year 2024 GDP growth was exactly 5.0%, with Q4 2024 at +5.4%. The 2025 H1 pace suggests the annual target is on track, but a slight slowdown from Q1 to Q2 highlig

USD/CAD: The tariff premium seems to have priced itself into USD/CAD once again, as USD/CAD is trading above 1.40 – the highest level since April of this year. We believe that USD/CAD is overbought and see a reversal in the near future down towards 1.38, but we are at a critical juncture where a temporary upside breakout cannot be ruled out, with a move up to 1.42 likely if we see a confirmed close above the upper band of the bullish channel (which sits at 1.4080 at the time

Figure 6 denotes the median returns and hit rates (% of instances with positive returns) for CCY/USD pairs in October since 2015, with green (red) dots indicating net long (short) expo- sure in our portfolio (EUR denoted in yellow given mixed long/short exposure). USD has generally outperformed over that horizon, delivering +0.5-0.7% median returns with a 60- 70% hit rate across both the TWI and DXY. By contrast, G10 low-yielders (JPY, CHF) and pro-cyclical mid-yielders (AUD,

Over the past week, the market has tied the value of the JPY with the perceived political fortunes of newly elected LDP leader Takaichi, and specifically with the concern that she would disrupt the BoJ’s rate hiking cycle. The JPY is the weakest performing G10 currency over the past week. That said, we would be wary about carry trade bets in the coming weeks given the risk that the value of the JPY could snap back. It is possible that Takaichi will not be able to gain enough

Will President Trump follow through on his threat to impose more 100% tariffs on China, ahead of his one-to-one with President Xi at the end of the month? Most investors would say no, I imagine. Certainly, if he did, it would take the US average tariff rate up to 31%, if my maths is right, surpassing the levels seen around 'Liberation Day'. Back then, it was quickly evident that those sorts of levels were unsustainable. - ING

Gold has experienced a remarkable rally, surging approximately $4,379.6 per ounce from an initial price of $2,609.2 per ounce at the beginning of the year. This significant increase in value can be attributed to a confluence of factors that have created a favorable environment for gold as a safe-haven asset. One of the primary drivers behind gold's ascent has been the ongoing trade uncertainty that has permeated global markets. Tensions between major economies, fluctuating t

I've extracted that there is a belief that the franc serves as the best hedge against a decline in U.S. equities stems from the notion that if equities are sold off aggressively from analyst chatter. The market might anticipate the Swiss National Bank reducing its extensive equity holdings. This expectation could lead to repatriation flows that support the CHF. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has established a significant presence in the global financial markets, with its port

A measure of the dollar has recently indicated a notable underperformance of the greenback compared to major currencies, particularly in the context of global economic shifts and geopolitical tensions. This decline in value has been marked by a series of fluctuations that have raised questions among analysts and investors alike. Following this period of underperformance, the dollar has experienced a small but significant rebound, prompting discussions about the sustainability