The TPI is one of the instruments that the ECB would rather not use, and we believe that the odds that the instrument will be activated are low. However, simply by reminding markets of the instruments’ existence, policymakers could probably prevent a lot of the contagion risk to other countries. Crucially, if the ECB were to use the TPI, we argue that this will be primarily to shield other countries’ debt markets from unwarranted fallout of the French political impasse. Polic

We still need PPI on Friday and then final adjustments, accounting for weighting differences knocks down core CPI upon translation into core PCE maybe by half a tenth to being on the bubble between 0.2% and 0.3% m/m SA. The Fed follows core PCE, not core CPI, and they’ll get the estimate before the next decision. - Scotiabank

Thursday Session docket: Full calendar found in the Terminal

The current Fed-Banxico spread stands at 150bps, however, chatter for a 50bps rate hike in December was ignited after Fed's Waller comments. If materialized, the differential would fall to 100bps which is tight when compared to the historical average of 500bps. A diminished risk premia would pressure investors to exit MXN long positions and carry trades into more attractive assets. The trade is not recent, USD/MXN has been rallying since the Fed decided to hike rates in Septe

**AS SEEN IN TERMINAL > FED CALLS TRACKER, GET FULL ACCESS NOW The October CPI report pushed desks to revise Fed calls as inflation came in hotter than expected. Fed fund futures have now started to price in the probability of a 50bps rate hike in December; however, odds stand very low. Deutsche Bank now sees a March 2027 rate hike, this call is joined by the desk at Goldman Sachs. The former stands as the most hawkish in our Fed Calls Tracker as it is forecasting a total 75b

**AS SEEN IN TERMINAL > IMM POSITIONING, GET FULL ACCESS NOW! Leveraged funds built EUR net shorts to a total of 78.56K contracts in the latest reported week, according to CFTC data. The metric is a fresh new low in our IMM dashboard, which looks back to the prior 3 years of data. Fast money now has the largest short in EUR/USD since 2015, when the euro debt crisis hit EUR-denominated assets. Navigate our IMM CFTC FX Positioning dashboard found in the Terminal tab.

Historically, USD/JPY exhibits a remarkably strong bullish seasonal bias heading into year-end, characterized by a sharp multi-month rally that accelerates from late summer through December. After reaching a seasonal trough between August and September around the 0.5% gain mark, the pair consistently builds upward momentum through October and November. This rally culminates in December, where USD/JPY typically hits its highest seasonal average performance of the year, exceedi

The October 2026 Consumer Price Index report revealed a hotter-than-expected inflation picture, with headline prices rising 0.4 % month-over-month (exceeding the 0.3 % consensus) and core CPI advancing 0.3 % (above the 0.2 % estimate). While energy price growth moderated following September's sharp surge, persistent upward pressure in shelter and core services maintained a sticky 3-month annualized core inflation pace of 3. 4%. Coupled with declining real average hourly earni

**As seen in Reports section, get full access here Macro Walk, G10FX Factors, Risk In The Week for Nov. 8 week out now

**AS SEEN IN TERMINAL>NFP DASHBOARD, GET FULL ACCESS HERE October job gains were heavily driven by private service industries, specifically healthcare, transportation and warehousing, and professional business services. AHE rose by 14 cents, or 0.4%, bringing the hourly average to $38.00 The U.S. economy added 411,000 jobs over the last three months, bringing the monthly average to 137,000 Access NFP Dashboard for more info

**As seen in Terminal>Key Rates, get full access now! Following a surge in monetary policy tightening in September, G10 central banks largely paused interest rate hikes in October 2026 before resuming selective rate increases in early November amid persistent energy price shocks and lingering inflation. The Bank of Canada was the sole G10 central bank to raise benchmark rates during October, whereas the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (which left its deposit rate a

**As seen in Terminal > NFP dashboard, get full access here Headline: Economists expect net payroll additions to range between 65,000 and 90,000 jobs Unemployment Rate: Projected to hold steady at 4.2%. Average Hourly Earnings: Forecasted to rise 0.3% month-over-month and approximately 2.9% to 3.1% year-over-year You can study and download projections at the Cable FX Macro Non Farm Payrolls dashboard found in our Terminal.

Track FX futures positioning by market participant; leveraged money, asset managers, dealers Study proprietary FX futures positioning by market to track potential over extended readings in IMM summary Read historical broad dollar positioning propietary calculation in IMM historical Get full access here cablefxm.co.uk

**As seen in the Reports section, get full access here Weekly updates on: FX techs, sovereign debt, macro movers, economic surprises and more

We are pleased to introduce the Cable FX Macro G10 Central Bank Tracker—an institutional-grade, 4-tabbed interactive panel designed to provide macro traders, strategists, and portfolio managers with actionable monetary policy insights, rate differential analytics, and custom scenario modeling across all G10 economies. https://www.cablefxm.co.uk/so/c4Q55_Kwk?languageTag=en

From early 2025 through mid-2026, the cross tracked rate differentials very closely. When the NZ-AU yield spread rallied, AUD/NZD climbed; when the spread narrowed or dipped, AUD/NZD followed. Across September–October 2026, the NZ-AU yield spread plummeted sharply from over +35–40 bps toward +16.8 bps. However, AUD/NZD spot stayed elevated near 1.2333 rather than following yields lower. The FX spot market is currently over-priced relative to its underlying fixed-income anchor

The chart shows the S&P 500 (yellow) and the 10-year yield (light-blue) moving higher together over the broader period, consistent with a regime in which higher rates, inflation concerns, oil, and heavy AI-related debt issuance supported both equity valuations (or at least limited their downside) and rising yields. The recent sharp pullback in US 10-year yields marks a clear restoration of Treasuries’ safe-haven function; the flight-to-safety dynamic that has historically ben

December often shows yen weakness (positive for many JPY crosses, with some samples showing CHF/JPY or EUR/JPY among the stronger performers). Full October and November lean toward yen softness in our 10-year study. Japanese holidays in early November (Culture Day on Nov 3 in recent years) can also thin Tokyo liquidity and widen spreads, which sometimes coincides with sharper moves once the window closes. When looking to position for this seasonal window, prefer fade strength

Over the past three months the Swedish krona has shown the highest sensitivity to the AI trade (proxied by the AIQ ETF), with a beta of +0.070 on USDSEK. This means SEK has tended to weaken when the AI ETF rallies and strengthen on AI sell-offs—the strongest co-movement of any currency examined. The New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar follow with sizable negative betas (−0.054 and −0.039), so NZD and AUD have also tended to underperform on AI strength. Among the other Sc

The equal-weight long GBP & JPY / short CHF & EUR book is posting a modest +32.2 bp month-to-date gain. Performance has been driven by the EUR shorts, which more than offset the drag from the CHF legs. The factor’s edge has come almost entirely from EUR weakness versus both sterling and the yen. CHF relative strength has been the clear headwind, particularly in the JPY/CHF leg. Beta to VIX stands at −1.6 bp per point (OLS on daily basket P&L vs ΔVIX, n=40 sessions: 22 pre-Oct