XAUUSD has a positive seasonal window into October and November historically, driven largely by a combination of physical demand and institutional positioning. A key driver late in Q4 is the explosion in physical gold demand throughout Asia, led by India’s festive and peak wedding season including key events such as Dhanteras and Diwali, which creates palpable physical and jewelry buying pressure. November often sees renewed momentum beyond physical markets as global fund man

USD/MXN history shows the spot fails to hold gains above its 100DMA. Over the last year, it has recorded the longest stretch of 9-session holds above the moving average before failing. USD/MXN has ended lower 4 out the six times the cross has tested its 100DMA over the last year. The 20-day median is -2.05% after the initial MA test; the max downside over the next 10 sessions is -1.43%. In summary goign short USD/MXN at the test, 10d hold: mean +0.89%, 80% hit, avg win +1.35

Dollar/Loonie bias remains bullish as the U.S.-Canada 10-year yield spread is signaling further upside. A counterview to USD/CAD moving higher is the fact that markets are pricing in an almost symmetrical policy pad for both the Fed and the BoC. However, the macro backdrop is not aligned to this pricing and implies that the market is overshooting BoC hike bets. The CAD is up for a hawkish disappointment from the BoC; the central bank meets again on October 28. We will receive

**AS SEEN IN RISK IN THE WEEK REPORT, SUBSCRIBE AT CABLEFXM.CO.UK/MEMBERS

Crude oil has seen an uptrend since July; brent and WTI benchmarks breached above the $100/bbl area this week. The scatterplot below shows how the G10FX has performed over the last three months compared to each currency correlation to crude oil. A clear winner: NOK. The Norwegian krone holds the highest performance in the group and the strongest positive correlation to the crude oil benchmark. The period is also capturing outliers like the JPY and AUD, currencies holding nega

Activity and the labour market are the green block: IP +3.9% y/y, exports +19.3%, unemployment 2.4%, jobs-to-applicants 1.18, and wages that are extreme versus Japan’s own past (nominal cash +4.7% y/y, fastest since 1997; base pay +4.1%, fastest since 1992; real wages +2.4%). Pipeline prices are the hottest cell on the page — CGPI/PPI +7.6% y/y. Households are the red/amber residual: real household spending still −3.6% y/y, consumer confidence 35.5, Economy Watchers current 4

Various BoJ speeches have discussed the concept of a neutral rate, which most see in the 1.1-2.5% range in nominal terms. The diagram below has appeared in a few BoJ presentations recently and serves as a reminder that monetary conditions are too loose now that inflation is seen sustainably above 2.00% into FY2028. Among many of the positive charts in these presentations, one that stood out was the 10% year-on-year loan growth from ‘Major Banks’ – matching the peak from early

US data has overall been stronger-than-expected since the Fed conference, most notably the labour data for August where employment growth exceeded estimates by 100,000 (while unemployment remained unchanged at 4.1%). Producer price data was more or less in line with estimates, momentum picked up while the year-on-year figure rose by 5.4% in August. This would be well in line with price plans from the NFIB, which suggests further upside risks to inflation. Nordea’s call is tha

Pre-intervention the market’s cheap short was JPY (USD/JPY 164). After ¥15.4tn and a joint US op, short-yen became an event-risk book. The next cheapest G10 yield is CHF: SNB 0%, Confederation 10Y 0.40%, versus US 10Y 4.73%, UK 5.16%, Australia 5.08%, Germany 3.29%. Carry desks rolled the short from Tokyo to Zurich. CHF caught a Middle East bid earlier in 2026 (EUR/CHF down to 0.898 in March). Once energy shock inflation stayed imported and Swiss CPI only got to ~0.6%, the ha

Long AUD/GBP/NZD vs short CHF/SEK paid. USD/CHF and AUD/CHF were the clean expressions. We have previously noted carry trades working throughout the summer, and gains have now extended into August EoM as volatility remains suppressed. The VIX index, a global volatility benchmark, slipped below 15.0 on Thursday before reaching the lowest level since January. Low volatility usually translates into an appetite for carry trades. High-yield G10FX beat the two structural funders (C

We're looking at a classic hike-repricing. The market took Warsh's comments on inflation and pushed September rate hike odds from 35% to 56%, the Fed Chair noted prices are not improving "clearly and at a sufficient speed." In Treasuries, the front-end of the curve is underperforming the most. Gold is recording the sharpest move on our watchlist; this is repeating past performance on Warsh's hawkish leaning. The U.S. dollar took the September hawkish repricing and extended g

**You can analyze and download data from the U.S. Inflation Dashboard here June’s CPI report marked a notable step down in headline inflation, largely thanks to falling gasoline prices, while core inflation showed signs of stabilization at a lower level. It was a generally favorable print for those hoping for a gradual return to price stability, though persistent shelter costs and other sticky components mean the path back to the Fed’s 2% goal is likely to remain gradual. Mon

Hedge funds scale on JPY buying as real money selling moderates, says Deutsche Yen flows less negative on repatriation policy talk and systematic fast money demand Hedge funds trim USD buying; real money sellers' less aggressive stance more balanced Real money favours AUD, NOK; cuts support for GBP, EUR, SEK Hedge funds increased JPY demand and scaled back bearish bets across G10FX USD sentiment firms vs EM; real money cuts exposure, adds MXN selling. Hedge funds

Period context: Brent started ~$62, rocketed >100% into late March (geopolitical spike), then crashed ~40% into July. This was a classic event-driven oil regime, not a “normal” commodity cycle. Betas: All G10 currencies (including classic oil proxies AUD/NZD/CAD) showed negative betas to Brent (−0.006 to −0.055). DXY Broad had a positive beta (+0.028). Strength of relationship: Modest but statistically significant for most (R² 7–15%, |t| > 3 except CAD). NZD was the most oil-

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 07/05/26, get full access now! This week: US Svcs ISM PMI RBNZ OCR Decision FOMC Meeting Minutes China CPI & PPI

The decline in US 5-year breakeven inflation rates is a meaningful reduction in market-implied inflation expectations over the medium term, driven largely by the sharp drop in oil prices and softer incoming data expected to pull headline CPI lower in the coming months. Strategists are growing more confident that inflationary pressures are cooling enough to allow the Federal Reserve to shift its focus to supporting growth and the labor market as energy costs ease and forward-l

Recent dynamics between the US dollar (DXY) and crude oil benchmarks (WTI/Brent) show a clear decoupling from the traditional relationship, driven by shifting dominance between geopolitical/supply factors and macro data/Fed expectations. Oil prices had been in a steep decline through June and early July 2026, erasing much of the war premium built during the Iran-related conflict earlier in the year. Brent and WTI fell sharply back toward or below pre-conflict levels (around $

Fed market pricing and gold spot prices exhibit a strong inverse relationship, driven primarily by real interest rates and the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. When markets price in more dovish Fed policy—via lower probabilities of rate hikes or higher odds of cuts in tools like CME FedWatch futures—expected real yields typically decline, reducing the cost of holding gold and supporting higher spot prices. Conversely, hawkish repricing (e.g., markets shifting

**As seen in Online Tools > Non Farm Payrolls Dashboard Today’s softer-than-expected June jobs report triggered a meaningful dovish repricing in Fed rate expectations, particularly at the front end of the curve. The weak headline payrolls print and downward revisions to prior months significantly reduced the probability of a near-term rate hike, pushing back the odds of any tightening in July or September while increasing the market’s conviction in a more gradual or delayed e

The Nikkei 225 and USD/JPY have historically exhibited a positive correlation, driven primarily by the heavy weighting of export-oriented companies in the Japanese equity index. A weaker yen (higher USD/JPY) improves the competitiveness and yen-denominated earnings of major Nikkei constituents such as automakers, electronics firms, and machinery exporters, which typically supports equity prices. Conversely, yen strength tends to weigh on both the currency pair and the index.