**As seen in Risk In The Week report 11/01/25, get full access now! Swiss consumer prices remain subdued, the September figure came in steady at 0.2% Y/y. This marks the continuation of a disinflation trend, with headline inflation well within the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) 0-2% target range. The core metric rose 0.7% Y/y, which is within the recent monthly readings. Switzerland's inflation has decelerated rapidly from a 2022 peak of 3.5%, thanks to the SNB's aggressive rate

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 11/01/25, get full access now! The manufacturing index printed at 49.1, up from 48.7 in August, but still below 50 for the seventh straight month of contraction. The services gauge came in at 50.0, unchanged from August, marking stagnation after prior expansions. The uptick in manufacturing suggests a modest stabilization in factory activity amid softer demand, but ongoing contraction raises recession risks for manufacturing (only ~10% of

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 11/01/25, get full access now! Read the Risk In The Week to get briefed on this week's main events

**As seen in Online Tools > Risk Map, get full access now! The Cable FX Macro risk map tool shows the current month's main macroeconomic events. Next week we're set to see inflation metrics from Switzerland, US ISM PMIs, Canada labour report, and interest rate decisions from Mexico, Norway, and Sweden.

Markets now price 100bps of cuts by end-2026 (from 75bps pre-Budget), with 25bps cut odds at 90% for Nov 7. Swap spreads (UK – US 2-year) collapsed to -150bps, a 15-year low. Fiscal concerns and recent data have pushed markets to shift its outlook on the BoE, previously seen among the hawkish central banks in the G10. Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ £40bn tax hike + borrowing plan triggered a gilts selloff (10-year yield +35bps to 4.55%), eroding GBP yield support. OBR forecasts we

A measure of the dollar vs G10FX peers saw the greenback rise on the month to record its largest gain since July. Dollar gains extended on a Fed December repricing, lower implied volatility and risks abroad. The yen bottomed the group in October, USD/JPY was the strongest gainer; BoJ hold and intervention warnings at 155 fueled yen selloff, up from early-Oct lows near 146. Dollar-yen risk reversals hold a premium for puts over calls at 69.75bps in the 1m tenor For the dollar,

USD/JPY pair is trading around 154.00, near an eight-and-a-half-month high, reflecting ongoing yen weakness amid divergent monetary policies between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Overall sentiment leans mildly bullish for USD/JPY in the short term, fueled by the USD's yield advantage and global risk appetite, but with growing caution on overbought conditions and medium-term yen recovery risks. Retail and institutional traders are split, with contraria

**As seen in Online Tools > Chart Grid, get full access now! A variety of factors from Fed easing to Eurozone recovery signals have pushed desks to pencil in further upside on the euro, UBS and Morgan Stanley see EUR/USD reaching 1.25 next year. Near-term risks are balanced but tilt downside due to French drama and Fed uncertainty, with volatility likely around Powell's speech. Longer-term (Q4 2025), upside dominates if U.S. easing persists, per consensus forecasts from UBS

**As seen in Online Tools > Inflation Dashboard, get full access now! Both the headline CPI and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, were a tenth of a percentage point lower than anticipated, with monthly increases of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Over a 12-month period, the headline CPI rose by 3.0%, slightly higher than the 2.9% recorded in August, while the core CPI was also 3.0%, showing a decrease from 3.1%. An increase in seasonally adjusted gasoline prices

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 10/17/25, get full access now! Inflation remains above the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) 2% target for over three years, driven by rising food and energy costs, wage pass-through, and a weak yen, but has shown signs of moderation. Headline CPI eased to 2.7% year-over-year (y/y) in August, while core measures (excluding fresh food) hovered around 2.8%. Analysts expect a modest reacceleration in September to ~2.9% core CPI y/y due to sustained livi

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 10/17/25, get full access now ! Due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown (now in its second week), the scheduled September CPI release— originally set for October 15—has been postponed to October 24, 2025. This delay affects not only CPI but also related indicators like Producer Price Index (PPI), which was also due mid-October. In the absence of new data, markets and analysts are relying on nowcasts and August figures for insights. In

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 10/17/25, get full access now! Headline CPI inflation was unchanged at 3.8% Y/y in August, driven by offsetting pressures: rising food and services costs balanced by softer transport (e.g., airfares). Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) eased slightly to 4.7% y/y from 5.0% in July. The BoE anticipates a temporary peak of 4.0% in September 2025, influenced by energy base effects, food price surges, and government-set pri

**AS SEEN IN ONLINE TOOLS > CHART GRID Currently, markets are factoring in 50 basis points of rate cuts from the Fed by December, which could boost risk sentiment and support high-beta currencies like the kiwi in the short term. Additionally, there is talk that the current pricing by the RBNZ might be starting to appear overstretched. The latest output figure fell short of expectations, leading markets to anticipate further easing from the RBNZ. However, persistent inflation

Despite the stretched technicals flagging a short-term reversal in the CHF crosses, traders continue to increase bullish exposure across the front-end of curve. Both 1w and 1m tenors have seen topside franc interest rise. We remind you that the CHF is the best expression in FX to a potential risk selloff in the U.S., I wrote more about it here .

The chart below serves as visual guidance on the extent that the USD/JPY exchange rate has detached from rate differentials. U.S. Treasury 2-year and JGB yield spread are recording the most negative correlation coefficient since 2020. Historically, this negative relationship does not tend to last long. Tuesday session saw a rise on topside structures interest, while hedge funds were reportedly seen buying the spot long. We're far from intervention levels, but the extent of th

**As seen in Online Tools > INF Monitor, get full access now! This week, we will be closely monitoring the release of inflation data from several key economies, including New Zealand, Canada, the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom. These countries are significant players in the global economic landscape, and their inflation statistics can provide valuable insights into broader economic trends. Currently, most of these nations are experiencing inflation rates that ex

*Online Tools > CAL, get full access now! Tuesday session is light in both economic and central bank dockets, however, eyes on inflation as BoC is priced in to deliver further easing.

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 10/17/25, get full access now! Canada's headline inflation remains subdued but ticked up slightly in August amid moderating energy price declines and persistent pressures in shelter and services. The Bank of Canada targets 2% inflation, and these figures show the economy is approaching that goal, though core measures are a bit stickier. Headline CPI rose 1.9% Y/y (up from 1.7% in July), driven by slower declines in gasoline prices. On a mo

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 10/17/25, get full access now! As of now, inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) 1–3% target band but is trending toward the upper end, driven by administered prices (e.g., council rates), food costs, and energy. The RBNZ projects headline CPI at 3.0% for the September quarter, reflecting temporary pressures, before easing to the 2% midpoint by mid-2026. Headline CPI rose 0.5%Q/q , down from 0.9% in the March q

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 10/17/25, get full access now! China's economy growing at a steady pace, aligning with the government's annual target of "around 5%. The first half to 2025, exceeded economist expectations and reflects resilience amid global trade tensions, up 5.3% Y/y. For further context, full-year 2024 GDP growth was exactly 5.0%, with Q4 2024 at +5.4%. The 2025 H1 pace suggests the annual target is on track, but a slight slowdown from Q1 to Q2 highlig