🇺🇸❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: U.S. Consumer Prices

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 10/17/25, get full access now!

Due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown (now in its second week), the scheduled September CPI release— originally set for October 15—has been postponed to October 24, 2025. This delay affects not only CPI but also related indicators like Producer Price Index (PPI), which was also due mid-October. In the absence of new data, markets and analysts are relying on nowcasts and August figures for insights. Inflation remains moderate but sticky in core measures, with overall CPI ticking up slightly month-over- month. This aligns with the Federal Reserve's recent signals of potential further rate cuts in November/December if data softens.

A dominant concern, with ~60% of costs expected to hit consumers. Goldman Sachs and RBC highlight delayed effects in core goods (e.g., vehicles, apparel), potentially adding 0.2–0.3% to m/m core. The headline is expected to accelerate to 3.1% Y/y, via Bloomberg economists’ survey median. However, three of the top 10 U.S. inflation forecasters see the metric rising slightly below consensus at 3.0%. Access our U.S. inflation dashboard for more info.