📊🇺🇸 Inflation Surprise Index Turns Negative In September: Cable FX Macro
- Rosbel Durán
- Oct 28
- 1 min read
Both the headline CPI and the core CPI, which excludes food and
energy costs, were a tenth of a percentage point lower than
anticipated, with monthly increases of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.
Over a 12-month period, the headline CPI rose by 3.0%, slightly higher than the 2.9% recorded in August, while the core CPI was also 3.0%, showing a decrease from 3.1%.
An increase in seasonally adjusted gasoline prices contributed
to the faster monthly headline rate compared to the core rate. As usual, shelter costs were among the factors driving the core
increase, though the 0.2% rise was modest compared to recent
years.
The Cable FX Macro Inflation Surprise Index takes into account monthly and yearly inflation figures from the core and the headline, it also includes the Core PCE deflator metrics. After September data, the gauge turned negative. U.S. inflation surprises have been negative in recent years, however, the chart below shows this development is not long-lasting.
As of time of writing, there are 2 Fed rate cuts fully priced in for the rest of the year, despite the fact that inflation remains above target. We remind you that the White House announced on Friday that there may not be an October inflation report.
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