🇺🇸❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: U.S. ISM PMIs

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 11/01/25, get full access now!

The manufacturing index printed at 49.1, up from 48.7 in August, but still below 50 for the seventh straight month of contraction. The services gauge came in at 50.0, unchanged from August, marking stagnation after prior expansions. The uptick in manufacturing suggests a modest stabilization in factory activity amid softer demand, but ongoing contraction raises recession risks for manufacturing (only ~10% of GDP). Survey respondents noted supply chain easing but weak export orders due to global trade tensions. In services, flat activity reflects a resilient but cooling services sector, supported by consumer spending but weighed by higher borrowing costs. Comments highlighted labor shortages easing slightly, though wage growth remains firm.

A Reuters economists poll showed demand-side recovery but highlight inventory builds and high input costs as drags. Any uptick in the manufacturing figure will ease fears of a U.S. recession. While the services index is likely to hold above 50.0, this is encouraging for a soft landing scenario.