🇨🇳❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: China GDP Growth

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 10/17/25, get full access now!

China's economy growing at a steady pace, aligning with the government's annual target of "around 5%. The first half to 2025, exceeded economist expectations and reflects resilience amid global trade tensions, up 5.3% Y/y. For further context, full-year 2024 GDP growth was exactly 5.0%, with Q4 2024 at +5.4%. The 2025 H1 pace suggests the annual target is on track, but a slight slowdown from Q1 to Q2 highlights emerging pressures. A standout factor, with exports surging 6.9% year-on-year in Q1 (in yuan terms). Diversification to non-US markets helped offset U.S. tariffs (e.g., 20% on fentanyl-related imports and additional "reciprocal" tariffs starting in April 2025).

The World Bank recently upgraded its projection to 4.8% (from 4.0% in April), citing stronger-than-expected H1 momentum but warning of a slowdown to 4.2% in 2026 due to export deceleration, rising public debt, and reduced fiscal stimulus. The 4.8% projection is in line with Bloomberg’s economists’ survey median forecast, they pencil in a slowdown of fixed investment and consumer demand this year. For 3Q25, the desk at Barclays stands among the most pessimistic as they see output slowing down to 4.3% Y/y, Morgan Stanley and TD Securities expect the figure at 4.4%. Credit Agricole and Goldman Sachs stand above the consensus at 4.9% and 4.8%, respectively.