The modest 0.3% increase in AHE is a surprise to us, because a calendar quirk signaled risk of a bigger increase. The relative softness has now persisted for three months, and it’s starting to look like a trend. The three-month annualized rate of increase of AHE now stands at just 3.7%, the lowest since March 2021, and down sharply from 6.3% as recently as November last year. The rising trend in participation appears to be facilitating a moderation in wage growth, but nothing is certain until the mix-adjusted quarterly ECI data tell the same story. - Chief Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics
Source: Bloomberg
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