⚖️🇺🇸U.S. 2s30s Close At Highest Level Since 2021: Cable FX Macro
- Rosbel Durán
- a few seconds ago
- 1 min read
The steepening trend began notably in April 2025, with the 30-year minus 2-year spread widening to +122 basis points (bps) by mid-August—up from deep negative territory—and the 10-year minus 2-year spread reaching +0.59% by mid-year. As of December 11, 2025, the 10Y-2Y spread stands at +0.62%, the widest since April, reflecting ongoing normalization. This is below historical averages (~0.85%) but indicates a "bull steepener" dynamic, where short rates fall faster than long rates rise. U.S. 2s30s closed at 132.43bps on Friday, the differential is the most positive since late 2021.
Behind this move is the Fed easing cycle, which has cut rates by 75bps so far this year. Also, expectations of fiscal support feeding into domestic inflation and tariffs are keeping long-end rates up.
Chatter is for the street to favour intermediate bonds, the belly of the curve. The income from these tenors come with lower duration risk.
