💵📆Dollar Seasonal Point Lower Over The Next Months: Cable FX Macro
- Rosbel Durán
- 2 hours ago
- 1 min read
The dollar is trading down 0.6% on the week, this is extending losses recorded over the last two weeks, mostly driven by an FOMC 2026 repricing. The Fed decided to cut rates by 25bps on Wednesday, this was not shocking as it was fully price in, but the December projections came in on the dovish side of the scale.
On an index basis, the greenback has weakened more than 1% in December, and it is recording losses close to 8% YTD. We have previously noted how this year is closely tracking Trump's first term. Back then, losses didn't stop at 8.0%, and seasonal point to further downside over the next couple of months.
The chart below shows a dollar index constructed by Bloomberg, average performance over the last 10-years show losses tend to extend from here. The red line marks February 1st, this would be a reference rate for a dollar bottom, on average.
