The Ukraine war could hold back the euro in the near term but the currency should end the year moderately higher versus the dollar. The eurozone economy is set to face stronger headwinds from the Ukraine war than the U.S. due to its reliance on Russian energy supplies. For many market commentators, however, the Federal Reserve's expected rapid pace of policy tightening this year risks sending the U.S. economy into a recession in 2023. Meanwhile, European Central Bank officials have signaled that rates could be raised as soon as July. We expect EUR/USD to push back to its 1.10 pivot into the summer and beyond. - Rabobank FX Strategist
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