**As seen in Risk In The Week report 10/17/25, get full access now! China's economy growing at a steady pace, aligning with the government's annual target of "around 5%. The first half to 2025, exceeded economist expectations and reflects resilience amid global trade tensions, up 5.3% Y/y. For further context, full-year 2024 GDP growth was exactly 5.0%, with Q4 2024 at +5.4%. The 2025 H1 pace suggests the annual target is on track, but a slight slowdown from Q1 to Q2 highlig

USD/CAD: The tariff premium seems to have priced itself into USD/CAD once again, as USD/CAD is trading above 1.40 – the highest level since April of this year. We believe that USD/CAD is overbought and see a reversal in the near future down towards 1.38, but we are at a critical juncture where a temporary upside breakout cannot be ruled out, with a move up to 1.42 likely if we see a confirmed close above the upper band of the bullish channel (which sits at 1.4080 at the time

Figure 6 denotes the median returns and hit rates (% of instances with positive returns) for CCY/USD pairs in October since 2015, with green (red) dots indicating net long (short) expo- sure in our portfolio (EUR denoted in yellow given mixed long/short exposure). USD has generally outperformed over that horizon, delivering +0.5-0.7% median returns with a 60- 70% hit rate across both the TWI and DXY. By contrast, G10 low-yielders (JPY, CHF) and pro-cyclical mid-yielders (AUD,

Over the past week, the market has tied the value of the JPY with the perceived political fortunes of newly elected LDP leader Takaichi, and specifically with the concern that she would disrupt the BoJ’s rate hiking cycle. The JPY is the weakest performing G10 currency over the past week. That said, we would be wary about carry trade bets in the coming weeks given the risk that the value of the JPY could snap back. It is possible that Takaichi will not be able to gain enough

Will President Trump follow through on his threat to impose more 100% tariffs on China, ahead of his one-to-one with President Xi at the end of the month? Most investors would say no, I imagine. Certainly, if he did, it would take the US average tariff rate up to 31%, if my maths is right, surpassing the levels seen around 'Liberation Day'. Back then, it was quickly evident that those sorts of levels were unsustainable. - ING

Gold has experienced a remarkable rally, surging approximately $4,379.6 per ounce from an initial price of $2,609.2 per ounce at the beginning of the year. This significant increase in value can be attributed to a confluence of factors that have created a favorable environment for gold as a safe-haven asset. One of the primary drivers behind gold's ascent has been the ongoing trade uncertainty that has permeated global markets. Tensions between major economies, fluctuating t

I've extracted that there is a belief that the franc serves as the best hedge against a decline in U.S. equities stems from the notion that if equities are sold off aggressively from analyst chatter. The market might anticipate the Swiss National Bank reducing its extensive equity holdings. This expectation could lead to repatriation flows that support the CHF. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has established a significant presence in the global financial markets, with its port

A measure of the dollar has recently indicated a notable underperformance of the greenback compared to major currencies, particularly in the context of global economic shifts and geopolitical tensions. This decline in value has been marked by a series of fluctuations that have raised questions among analysts and investors alike. Following this period of underperformance, the dollar has experienced a small but significant rebound, prompting discussions about the sustainability

**As seen in Online Tools > Eco Board, get full access now! The most recent macroeconomic data from Canada reveals a complex landscape...

Earlier in the week, a Swiss franc bid pushed the EUR/CHF rate below 0.9300, likely due to the franc's safe haven status following the...

**As seen in Online Tools > Chart Grid, get full access now The euro has experienced a notable decline against the US dollar for the...

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 10/06/25, subscribe now! Canada emoployment decreased by 66,000 jobs (-0.3% month-over-month),...

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 10/06/25, subscribe now! CPI inflation rose to 3.5% year-over-year from 3.3% in July, driven by...

RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) 50bp to 2.50% today, with balanced messaging that left open the option of a pause, a 25bp or a 50bp...

We expect labour market data to show signs of stabilizing in September with 10,000 jobs added, which would leave the unemployment rate...

The decision to appoint a new prime minister should support French sovereign bonds in the near term. However, we believe there is limited...

September 2025 delivered a surprisingly resilient performance across major asset classes, bucking seasonal headwinds and extending a...

Last week, we received a decent batch of U.S. data, the releases mostly topped economists' expectations sending the macro sentiment gauge...

Sentiment is downbeat on France, where OAT and domestic exposed stocks have been treading water since former PM Bayrou unexpectedly...

On Monday, the Democratic and Republican leadership went to the White House to talk about avoiding a government shutdown on Wednesday....