💵🔺USD Screens Seasonal. Upside Ahead: Cable FX Macro

• The US Dollar Index (DXY) has a well documented seasonal tendency to weaken in April and then rebound in May. This opens up a traditional “upside seasonal” window from late April through the end of May, during which the greenback has historically seen positive average returns in most years. The pattern is one of the more consistent in FX seasonality studies and is seen across multi-decade datasets.

• What's behind the upside? April weakness frequently leaves the dollar oversold on a seasonal basis, creating a contrarian buying opportunity into May. Also, March–April often sees USD-supportive repatriation and corporate tax-related flows, but these tend to fade by late April, setting up a rebound as Q2 economic momentum (typically stronger in the US) kicks in.

• April 2026 played out to the classic seasonal script with broad USD weakness (DXY down ~0.9% into month-end). We’re now in the tailwind of history as we move deeper into May. Major pairs have also been in sync: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD have tended to lose -0.6%, -0.4%, and -0.5% on average in May, which is consistent with dollar strength.