📝 We Remain In A Period Of Elevated Macroeconomic Risk: Barclays

After a weaker-than-expected November consumer price reading a 50bp hike at the December FOMC meeting tomorrow is all but a done deal. However, there could potentially be downward revisions to the policy rate path implied by the SEP dot plot. In essence, while we hold our baseline forecast unchanged for an additional 50bp hike in February 2023, followed by a 25bp rise in March 2023, we see additional downside risks to that rate path in the aftermath of the November CPI release. On net, we remain in a period of elevated macroeconomic risk and uncertainty, even if peak inflationary pressures may have already occurred, and, in our opinion, the November CPI print did little to change this longer-running narrative. - Barclays