📊🇺🇸U.S. Inflation Surprise Index Dips In June: Cable FX Macro

**You can analyze and download data from the U.S. Inflation Dashboard here

• June’s CPI report marked a notable step down in headline inflation, largely thanks to falling gasoline prices, while core inflation showed signs of stabilization at a lower level. It was a generally favorable print for those hoping for a gradual return to price stability, though persistent shelter costs and other sticky components mean the path back to the Fed’s 2% goal is likely to remain gradual.

• Month-over-month (seasonally adjusted) metric prtined at -0.4% (largest decline since April 2020, when it fell 0.8%). This followed a +0.5% rise in May. Year-over-year came in at +3.5% (down from +4.2% in May). Economists had expected around +3.8%.

• The Cable FX Macro Inflation Surprise Index dropped to 150, as inflation metrics missed expectations in June. We are yet to see the core PCE deflator, which contributes to a quarter of our surprise tracker.