🛢️💱Crude Spikes Now Favour U.S. Dollar: Cable FX Macro

• Period context: Brent started ~$62, rocketed >100% into late March (geopolitical spike), then crashed ~40% into July. This was a classic event-driven oil regime, not a “normal” commodity cycle.

• Betas: All G10 currencies (including classic oil proxies AUD/NZD/CAD) showed negative betas to Brent (−0.006 to −0.055). DXY Broad had a positive beta (+0.028).

• Strength of relationship: Modest but statistically significant for most (R² 7–15%, |t| > 3 except CAD). NZD was the most oil-sensitive (most negative). CAD was essentially zero.

• Interpretation of signs: When oil rose, G10 FX (even commodity currencies) tended to weaken vs USD and the broad dollar strengthened. That’s the opposite of the long-term historical pattern (AUD/CAD/NOK usually +0.2 to +0.4 beta).