🏦UBS On Fed's Tapering

* When the Fed comes to taper Its asset purchases, there's unlikely to be tantrums anywhere near the scale that occurred in 2013. UBS US economists and Treasury strategy have examined the Fed's taper and concluded that in all probability it won't.

* For a start, the Fed's relative purchases are much smaller than they were in 2013: today it's 23% of DVOI, but in 2013 it was 42%. Month-by-month it's 0.52% vs 0.79%. Further, the Fed's purchases are tilted to the short end with a weighted average maturity of 7 years from 13 years in 2011.

* Thirdly, the Fed's 2013 taper also caused a sharp adjustment in Fed interest rate expectations. But this time around that's already happened - much of action in late February and early March derived from the short end changing its fed funds view.