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Our tracker of U.S. inflation surprises is rebounding in September as the headline CPI tops the consensus for the first time since April, however, the gauge had not been positive since May
As a reminder, our inflation surprise index incorporates surprises from headline, core, and PCE metrics
The 0.1pp headline CPI beat is the first in months of slowdown in consumer prices. However, the core metric not only topped forecasts but accelerated from the prior
Looking at a breakdown in contributions to the Cable FX Macro U.S. Inflation Surprise Index, core CPI leads the upside in September
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