📝See BoJ Rate Hike In January 2026: MUFG

We expect BoJ will leave policy rate on hold at 0.50% this week, with more time needed to determine impact of US tariffs

Focus will be on Governor Ueda's press conference and on whether he indicates specific conditions for next rate hike or gives sense of possible timing

We think available data and political calendar will serve as major obstacles to rate hike at October Monetary Policy Meeting

We continue to expect the BoJ will carry out its next rate hike in January 2026,2 since the Bank is unlikely to be able to assess the impact of US tariffs on the Japanese and global economies by the end of 2025. - MUFG