According to data released by statistical agency (INEGI) on June 23, Mexico’s retail sales in April saw a modest setback, printing at -0.4% m/m sa (chart 3) in real terms after two consecutive expansions in February (2.6% m/m), and March (3.5% m/m). Wholesale sales also fell, from 2.7% m/m to -0.4% m/m. The annual comparison was highly distorted by base effects as retail sales posted an expansion of 30.1% y/y, and wholesale sales rose 27.3% y/y (chart 4). Compared to pre-pandemic (March 2020, before the economy shut down), retail sales are up 1.17%, while wholesale sales are down -1.68% in real terms
Negative risks remain over the coming months as COVID-19 cases increased nationwide last week after a period of consecutive declines, posing a growing risk of lockdowns into the summer. We nonetheless remain positive for the annual economic performance outlook, as vaccination efforts progress and economic activity reactivates, leading us to expect strong activity in Q3 and Q4.
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