**As seen in Risk In The Week report 06/22/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports
Looking into decimal numbers, the April U.S. core PCE figure eased to 2.754% Y/y from 2.813%, the lowest level in more than three years. Negative contributions from durable goods prices increased, while a Bloomberg measure of supercore PCE eased to 3.429%. The recently released Fed SEP sees the metric reaching the target by 2026, however, Fed officials have expressed that they will not wait for inflation to hit 2% to reduce interest rates. A downside surprise in the figure could push market expectations to fight the Fed's view of only one rate cut for 2024. While the market estimate of 2.6% will show further signs of progress and a step in the right direction for the Fed, Wells Fargo analysts remind us that policymakers will likely express the need for further data to become confident that inflation is heading in the right direction.
Commentaires