📝Revising BoC Sept. Call to Rate Cut From Unchanged: Rabobank

We have changed our September Bank of Canada forecast from a no change decision to a 25bp cut from 2.75% to 2.50%.

This decision is largely hinged on recent “putrid” labor data pushing the three and six month average of job creation into negative territory, making the case for a cut, despite hotter-than-preferred inflation. We think this latter point will limit further easing, but we cannot rule out another 25bp move following the September meeting.

The OIS curve suggests investors are pricing in around 81.5% of a cut at the upcoming meeting. - Rabobank