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⛑💼👷🏻‍♂️🩺Non Farm Payrolls: Forecasts

  • June Non Farm Payrolls headline came above market consensus for the first time since the March release. The June headline figure topped expectations by a merely 150K, the March figure surprised markets by 269K. The latter has been the largest surprised since June 2020

  • Looking back to 2016 historical data, a five-year period, the average actual-consensus is 216K, while the surprises have a high standard deviation of 1.393M, this is due to the May 2020 better than expected actual

  • If we exclude the May 2020 release (a beat of 10.5 million!), we end up having a standard deviation of only 341K. Again, this is looking to data surprises (release-market consensus) back to 2016

  • Taking these numbers into the July Non Farm Payrolls release:

    • Consensus 870K + 1 STDEV = 1.211M

    • Consensus 870K - 1 STDEV = 529K

Rosbel Durán


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