June Non Farm Payrolls headline came above market consensus for the first time since the March release. The June headline figure topped expectations by a merely 150K, the March figure surprised markets by 269K. The latter has been the largest surprised since June 2020
Looking back to 2016 historical data, a five-year period, the average actual-consensus is 216K, while the surprises have a high standard deviation of 1.393M, this is due to the May 2020 better than expected actual
If we exclude the May 2020 release (a beat of 10.5 million!), we end up having a standard deviation of only 341K. Again, this is looking to data surprises (release-market consensus) back to 2016
Taking these numbers into the July Non Farm Payrolls release:
Consensus 870K + 1 STDEV = 1.211M
Consensus 870K - 1 STDEV = 529K
Rosbel Durán
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