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🇨🇭LIVEDESK: FX Flows

  • Despite what are low FX volumes in general, there is an interesting divergence emerging in cumulative net flow over the past two weeks. Macro names have bought around USD, with EUR/CAD/AUD/PLN the largest flows. However, they have been sellers of USDCNH despite the broader USD buying bias.

  • Other client segments have been USD sellers. Banks have sold —USD, asset managers around, and retail —$1.5.

  • Within that, it's interesting to note that both banks and asset mangers have been good GBP buyers.The bulk of the retail USD selling was vs JPY.

  • A jittery start of the week for risk. Equities traded in the red zone, yields were under downward pressure and the USD was bid across the board. Oil traded lower too after OPEC+ had reached an agreement to increase output. The sentiment quickly stabilised or even reversed to some extent. By the end of the week the net flows show fast money had a clear bias to buy USD this week (net "2.5bn USD buying indistinctly across all spaces), Real Money flows indicate a net bias to sell USD led by G10 and Asia.

  • The desk has seen renewed interest for EURUSD downside (also in the context of USD calls demand), interest for 1.15-1.16 type of strikes in the 2w-lm area; despite spot having gone quite a long way recently.




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