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🏦📊Interest Rate Probabilities: RBA, BoC Ahead

**As seen in Macro Walk Report 12/03/21, subscribe at

  • Next week, the G10 central bank docket sees the RBA and the BoC decide on interest rates. Here's the overnight indexed swaps market pricing as of 12/03/21

  • Overall, market pricing saw a sharp pullback the previous week as covid-19 variant fears caused repricing in markets. In the OIS market, we have not gone back to pre-omicron levels.

  • However, CAD overnight indexed swaps still see the BoC hiking 3 times by June, and 4 times by July next year. The Kiwi continues to lead the group as the RBNZ is expected to take the OCR to 2% by August next year

  • In USD, the overnight indexed swaps market sees the Fed's first hike by summer 2022. This is interesting given the more aggressive comments delivered by Powell this week. I'd have expected to see OIS pricing following through, however, not much changed since the previous week.



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