top of page

🏦📊 Interest Rate Probabilities

**As seen in Macro Walk Report 12/20/21,

  • The RBNZ continues to be seen delivering the most aggressive tightening cycle in our models, according to data provided by Bloomberg. The Kiwi central bank is priced to hike rates 5 times by August next year, with a terminal rate of 2%. Following, we have the BoC and the BoE, the latter had its overnight indexed swap curve relatively unchanged after the bank decided to lift the Bank Rate by 15bps. The BoE is expected to lift rates 3 times by August next year, leaving the Bank Rate at 1%, the swap markets could have started pricing the tightening ahead of the meeting.

  • Going back to the BoC, the overnight rate is seen reaching 1% by July next year, this implies three hikes with the first seen in April, however, the CAD overnight indexed swap curve saw the largest adjustments this week with a reduction of rate hike bets for April, June and July. The OIS curve for the dollar saw adjustments this week and the market sees the first hike fully priced in by June next year



bottom of page