Looking outside the historical drivers of currencies like rates, vaccination status seems to be leading the G10FX basket. This makes sense if we cancel theories of further variant mutations and imply that the higher the % of a country's population is vaccinated, the faster its economy will recover (local consumption, tourism, business hiring workers back, etc.)
The chart below is comparing the vaccination doses administered per 100 (WHO data) vs. year-to-date performance as a visual guidance
Australia, Japan and New Zealand are among those countries lagging in the vaccination campaign, while their currencies also have underperformed to the USD in 2021. Canada, UK lead the group, with 71 and 69 doses administered per 100, respectively. Again, CAD and GBP, in line with the vaccinations, outperformed the group in performance vs USD
Like most G10FX / 'x variable' relationships, we can find exceptions like NOK and NZD. New Zealand has had the slowest advancement in vaccinations, however, NZD has recovered from YTD lows. Similarly, NOK was in better standing to the USD prior to July. These divergences might be attributed to monetary policy or commodity prices.
Rosbel Durán
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