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💶Fast Money Closed EUR Longs: Cable FX Macro

  • The euro has experienced a notable decline against the US dollar for the fourth consecutive day, reflecting a broader trend in currency markets. Currently, the euro is trading around the 1.1550 mark, which represents a significant drop of approximately 200 pips from its position just a week ago. This downward movement has raised concerns among traders and analysts alike, as it indicates a shift in market sentiment and the potential for further volatility in the currency pair.

  • The chart grid displayed below illustrates a range of EUR crosses, providing valuable insight into the performance of the euro against other major currencies. By examining these crosses, traders can better assess whether the recent weakness in the euro is a widespread phenomenon or if it is limited to specific currency pairs. This analysis is crucial for understanding the broader implications of the euro's performance in the global market.

  • In recent months, the euro has emerged as a favored vehicle for expressing bearish positions on the US dollar. Many market participants have viewed the euro as a strategic choice for USD downside trades, capitalizing on the relative strength of the eurozone's economic recovery compared to the challenges faced by the US economy. However, the rapid decline observed in the euro's value has prompted option traders to reassess their strategies, leading to a shift in sentiment.

  • Political instability in France (budget gridlock) and Germany (coalition tensions) erodes confidence. Italy’s high debt (130% of GDP) remains a structural concern, raising fears of Eurozone fragmentation.

  • Market contacts have signalled traders giving up on EUR longs since the EU session, some fast money funds are now targeting a move below 1.1500.


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