🧮 Economic Estimates: U.S. November CPI

Week In The Risk U.S. November CPI Preview:

U.S. consumer prices jumped to 6.2% Y/Y in October beating market consensus forecast of 5.9%, this was the highest reading since 1990. The core print came at 4.6% Y/ Y, up from the previous 4% and higher than the consensus forecast of 4.3%. All major index components increased M/ M, with the largest gains seen in fuel oil, utility prices, and energy commodities. Gasoline increased at the fastest pace since February at 6.1% M/M, while the broad energy index came at 4.8% M/M, marking its highest print since March. Apparel prices were the only component to come flat on the month. Strategists at Nordea say their model based on owner’s equivalent rent shelter costs and used car prices point to a core print above 5%, while they see the headline coming at around 6.7%. Looking beyond the November print, Nordea says that they see broad wage growth inflation spilling over to the CPI figure in 2022, they note that wages lead CPI by 6-9 months with a correlation above 70% since 1984.

• Median Estimate Seen at 6.8%

• Forecasts Range: 5.7% - 7.1%

• Median Estimate for Core CPI Y/Y at 4.9%

Estimates:

TD Securities: 6.9%

Citigroup: 6.9%

Crédit Agricole 6.9%

BofA: 6.9%

Morgan Stanley: 7.1%

HSBC: 6.9%

BNP: 6.9%