The ECB staff projections will probably feature a somewhat higher 2025 inflation forecast, while the growth outlook may be revised down a bit. However, the projections may be outdated by the time they are released. And, unless the ECB adds alternative scenarios to account for US tariffs, these projections may have very limited shelf life and may provide little guidance for the April meeting.
We expect the ECB to cut the deposit rate by 25bp in at next week’s meeting. Our base case remains one further cut in April, but we see increasing risks that the next move is delayed to June. - Rabobank
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