Goods prices slowdown could be supported by an easing in global supply chains. An index created by the NY Fed has been trending lower for most part of this year, however it remains above its average
The NY Fed GSCPI has declined for 5 out of the last 6 months, with October recording a little rebound, however, this is circa 400bps lower than where we were a year ago
Looking at headline inflation vs the GSCPI one could argue that the slowdown could soon filter into consumer prices over the next couple of months. We have recently seen a decline in used cars
The median survey sees October CPI at 7.9% Y/y, core inflation is seen slowing down on a month-over-month basis. Despite the negative impulse, we're still far away from Fed's target
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