Market pricing has increased for the May and June meetings, but the market has actually priced in greater chances of hikes at the back end of 2022 as well, which doesn't make much sense if the RBA is delivering hikes earlier than previously forecasted. The August to November meetings all have more than 25bp priced in, with some around 34bp, which again is quite aggressive given RBA meetings are monthly (apart from no meeting in January), and from a central bank who is definitely on the dovish end of the spectrum.
Market pricing of 2.10% by December 2022 and 3.45% by Dec 2023 is extremely aggressive pricing and very unlikely to be realised, but these are just numbers in markets which have been battered of late as major central banks reverse their 'inflation is temporary" communication. - UBS Strategy
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