🐍🦅USD/MXN Tends to Fail Tests to 100DMA: Cable FX Macro

• USD/MXN history shows the spot fails to hold gains above its 100DMA. Over the last year, it has recorded the longest stretch of 9-session holds above the moving average before failing.

• USD/MXN has ended lower 4 out the six times the cross has tested its 100DMA over the last year. The 20-day median is -2.05% after the initial MA test; the max downside over the next 10 sessions is -1.43%. In summary goign short USD/MXN at the test, 10d hold: mean +0.89%, 80% hit, avg win +1.35 / avg loss −0.94. A 20d hold: mean +1.75%, 80% hit