📌 Market Tends to Overshoot The Fed: Cable FX Macro

• I originally saw this Fed Funds futs chart in 2019 in a note by former Nordea strategist Andreas Steno, I could not find it, so here's a similar picture from Deutsche Bank (took it from @johnhcochrane's blog)

• My point is not to explain the graph, John can do this better than me here. I want to remind you that the market tends to overshoot the Fed, and that it is wrong most of the time. That does not mean you should fight the market and become a contrarian from here on. I do not have the stats with me, but I can assure you that won't make you money in the long run.

• So Fend Funds futs prices are not an accurate forecast for where the target rate will be, then what? Dance along.