❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: Heavy Central Bank Docket

• RBA:

  • Analysts expect a 25bp hike to 4.10% (from 3.85%), with ~65–80% market probability, driven by persistent inflation and energy price surges. 23/30 economists polled by Reuters anticipate the move, though some see a hold if data softens. Press conference with Governor Bullock key for future signals

• BoJ:

  • Expected hold at 0.75%, but ~60% chance of signaling a hike by June (to 1.00% end-2026). Analysts note ongoing normalization amid wage growth, though energy shocks could delay; ING sees no immediate move

• Fed:

  • Overwhelming expectation for a hold at 3.50–3.75%, with ~99% odds via CME FedWatch. Markets price 0–1 cuts for 2026 (possibly September onward), down from earlier dovish bets due to war-driven inflation. Key watches: Updated dot plot, economic projections, and Chair Powell's presser for hawkish tilts; HSBC sees holds through 2026.

• BoE:

  • Hold at 3.75% widely anticipated, with markets shifting from cuts to possible hikes if inflation persists. Strategists at TD Securities see underpriced cut risks in 2026, but base case is pause amid fragile economy and oil concerns; end-2026 rate ~3.25–3.50%.

• ECB:

  • Hold expected at 2.75% (deposit rate) or 2.15% (main refinancing), with no cuts or hikes in base case. Analysts at ING see a hawkish shift due to oil risks and weaker euro, potentially looking through stagflation; some polls show holds into 2028, though markets price 0–2 cuts to ~2.25% end-2026 if growth weakens

• BoC:

  • Consensus for a hold at 2.25%, with no changes expected through 2026 in many views. Analysts highlight balanced risks between inflation (from oil) and growth slowdowns; guidance may emphasize data-dependence.