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🔻 Market Prices 70Bps Of Rate Cuts By Year-End: Cable FX Macro

  • Looking at trading in eurodollar contracts after the long weekend and the Non Farm Payrolls release. The June-December calendar spread points to a slight paring in rate cut bets, however, market still sees circa 3x25bps of rate cuts by year-end

  • Preceding the U.S. bank crisis, eurodollar calendar spreads had completely stood neutral after resilient inflation and a strong labour market supported a higher peak in rates. The following developments pushed traders to price in 100bps of cuts in March 24th

  • We're off these levels, and despite the upside surprise in March Non Farm Payrolls, investors expectations of policy easing as soon as this year remains steady



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