💥Long Brazilian Real, Short Turkish Lira Rises On Energy Spike: Cable FX Macro

• On average, EMFX has fallen to the U.S. dollar since the Iran conflict started. However, we have seen relative strength playing out as not all currencies share the same commodity/oil dependency status.

• Playing a long BRL / short TRY is a classic EMFX relative value cross trade. The strategy bets that BRL will outperform TRY, driven by Brazil’s oil exporter stance versus Turkey’s vulnerability as a major energy importer with high inflation and structural pressures.

• Since the Iran conflict, BRL/TRY long has performed +7.1% in spot markets; this does not take carry/funding costs. As long as energy prices stay elevated, the trade remains tactically attractive.