🔊Investors Should Not Expect A Recession: UBS

• Growth risks are higher than inflation risks, and central banks are tightening—so what stops a recession? Three things.

• First, spending firepower can mitigate higher energy prices. European consumers did not fritter away pandemic savings on SUVs and flat screen TVs. US higher income households have savings, and homeowners have more spending power than inflation implies.

• Second, Fed President Bullard provides entertainment value, not policy decision-making. Sensible central bankers know how to be cautious.

• And third, real time economic data is inaccurate, but structural changes mean the economy is biased to be better than reported.

UBS Chief Economist