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Writer's pictureRosbel Durán

🏦📊 Interest Rate Probabilities: Curve Pricing 4.0% Fed By Year-End

**As seen in Macro Walk report 09/18/2022, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports


  • Overnight index swaps price a rate of 4.0% from the Fed by end of this year, this is a hawkish repricing compared to last week when we had seen this level reached by March. Also, the curve is pricing cuts by end of 2023 from the Fed

  • The BoE is diverging from the Fed here as there are no rate reductions seen in curve pricing, we're heading into Super Thursday with 50bps priced in. The GBP swaps curve is the most aggressive in our tracking list. BoE is expected to take the Bank Rate to 4.5% by mid-2023, this means an additional 270bps of tightening into an economy that is expected to fall into a recession next year

  • Save these graphs and tables from the Macro Walk report as we walk into Fed, BoE and BoJ. We will be back next week to post on any changes in OIS pricing




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