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🎈Inflation Surprise Trends Diverge vs U.S.: Cable FX Macro

  • This week, the docket is set to receive the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE. As of December, the rate stands at 2.6% Y/y, but economists expect it to rebound in January

  • Not much progress is seen ahead as the median forecast pencils the U.S. core PCE rising by 2.7% this year, this is still 7bps above the Fed’s price target

  • We have seen a recent bottom in the precedent downward U.S. inflation surprises trend. The recent uptick is diverging from U.K., EU inflation surprises



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