📊Half of G10 Report Inflation Below Target: Cable FX Macro

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• As of September 2025, inflation across the G10 has largely cooled from 2022 peaks (often exceeding 7-10%) but remains above targets in most cases, with divergent paths: sticky services and core inflation in some (e.g., UK, US), while others like Japan and Switzerland show subdued rates. Global advanced economy inflation is projected at around 2.5-3% for 2025, down from 5-6% in 2023, driven by easing energy/food prices but offset by wage pressures and trade barriers.

• Headline CPI has fallen due to lower energy (oil prices down ~10% YoY) and food costs, but core (excluding food/energy) remains elevated at 2.5-3.5% on average, reflecting labor market tightness (unemployment ~4-5% in most G10).

• IMF projects G10 average CPI at 2.4% for 2025 (down from 3.1% in 2024), converging to 2% by 2026, but upside risks from tariffs and geopolitics (e.g., Middle East tensions) could add 0.5-1%. OECD sees similar trends, with advanced economies at 2.2%.

• As of now, half of the G10 countries report inflation below central bank target (upper-right chart). We're set to receive price data from the U.S. in the form of PPI and CPI this week.