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🔺 Gap Between Headline And Core Prices Seen Narrowing In August: Cable FX Macro


  • U.S. August inflation data will be released on Wednesday, September 13 at 8:30 EST. The estimate sees headline prices accelerating a rebound to 3.6% Y/y while the core figure is expected to fall to 4.3%

  • Earlier in the year, we saw core prices rising faster than the metric measuring volatile components. The gap turned negative and reached the widest level since 2015. Looking at 20-years of data, this is a two-sigma move

  • If the consensus is met, this would turn the differential at 0.7 percentage points. And if history is a guide, we could soon see headline prices rising faster than core in coming months

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