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🏦📊First Fed Rate Cut Moved Forward to July: Cable FX Macro

Updated: Aug 28, 2023

**As seen in Macro Walk report 08/25/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports

  • The Implied Rates section in our Macro Walk report sees the BoE delivering aggressive tightening over the next 5 meetings

  • Most central banks do not reach 1 rate hike over the next 5 meetings, according to OIS model calculations made by Bloomberg

  • However, the main theme surrounding the G10 central bank space is how long will rates remain at current levels. The markets are betting the Fed is holding rates unchanged until next summer

  • Prior to the Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole Speech on Friday, the overnight index swaps market priced in a full 25bps rate cut by June, rate cut bets were pushed forward in the calendar to July after the remarks

  • Joining the Fed, the RBNZ is now priced in to deliver its first rate cut a year from now. This implies that the OCR will be held unchanged at 5.5% until August 2024



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