UBS:
Sterling should recover as the year progresses as the Bank of England is likely to deliver further interest rate rises in coming months.The BOE raised its key rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% on Thursday but one policymaker called for rates to be left unchanged, causing sterling to fall. However, the BOE's meeting minutes highlight ongoing inflationary pressures and the tight labor market.
Given this backdrop, we expect the Bank to hike rates again at its next meeting in May, taking base rates to the 1% mark." The BOE could also deliver further increases in the second half
Goldman Sachs:
The Bank of England is likely to take a cautious approach to future policy decisions given the headwinds facing the U.K. economy.The BOE raised its key rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, but the decision comes amid an increasingly uncertain economic backdrop as the Ukraine war reinforces the risk of high inflation coupled with weak growth--or stagflation
We expect the Bank to proceed with caution, implementing 0.25% rate hikes until the policy rate reaches 1%, at which point it will likely pause the tightening cycle.
BMO Capital Markets:
In terms of guidance about future moves, "some further modest tightening.... may be appropriate in the coming months, but there are risks on both sides of that judgement." So it wasn't clear that the BoE will be moving as aggressively as, for example, the United States Federal Reserve
Inflation was the primary concern, but the BoE wasn't willing to risk the hit to growth. BMO remained comfortable with its expectation for a couple of more rate hikes this year, 25 bps each, in May and then in November. But again, it reserved the right to change that call as events unfolded.
TD Securities:
BoE surprised markets by delivering the much expected 25 basis-point interest-rate increase with a rather dovish rhetoric. Market pricing of future interest-rate rises "seems rather hawkish" compared to the signals that policymakers have provided today.
Unlike the Federal Reserve/ European Central Bank meetings, the entire Bank of England rhetoric was much more dovish, adding that gilt yields rallied by 6-8 basis points across the curve after the monetary policy announcement. In line with market consensus, the BOE lifted the base rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, though one policymaker unexpectedly voted to keep the bank rate unchanged at 0.5%.
ING Economics:
The UK economy is facing an energy shock that will dent disposable incomes. This has to be weighed against higher inflation. We expect it to peak at 8% in April. After that peak, we expect less pressure on the BoE to stay hawkish.
Our view of only one more hike this year contrasts with market expectations of five more hikes this year prior to today’s dovish surprise. We think this is excessive and expected some form of pushback from the committee. This has materialised in the form of the BoE signalling that inflation would fall below the 2% target within the forecast horizon premised on current market hike pricing. We expect the front-end to come down after today’s decision, as the market reassesses the BoE’s reaction function.
One standout is that the BoE is being far more cautious than the Fed last night. That is a reminder that the UK, like Europe, is an energy importer and more susceptible to events in Ukraine. With the US more exposed to demand-driven inflation, a confident Fed should keep the dollar in the ascendancy. We see a greater risk of GBP/USD trading 1.28 than 1.34 over the coming weeks.
Against the euro, however, GBP weakness should be more contained. This is the case because the same factors restraining BoE hawkishness will be playing out across continental Europe, too. And at least the BoE has already now delivered three hikes. We, therefore, see the EUR/GBP upside as more limited and do not see a strong case for it sustaining gains above the 0.8450/70 area.
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