Natixis:
Data released since the last meeting “broadly confirmed” the ECB’s medium-term inflation outlook of a “gradual diminishing price pressure”. The most recent data also point to “further moderation in wages”. That said, “domestic price pressures are strong and are keeping services price inflation high”. A moderation in service price inflation is clearly the final shoe that needs to drop for the ECB to feel fully confident to start its cutting cycle.
We continue a first rate cut in June and a total of 125bp cuts this year. But based on developments in the US, the risk of fewer cuts has clearly increased
ING:
Even if the policy announcement does not explicitly mention June as the moment for a first rate cut, we think that today’s meeting should mark the final stop before the cut. The faster-than-expected drop in headline inflation, as well as anaemic growth, have opened the door for some rate cuts. However, the reluctance demonstrated at today’s press conference illustrates that the ECB has no intention at all to fully reverse the rate hikes since July 2022, but will rather do some finetuning with a mild loosening of a still restrictive stance. As long as the eurozone economy remains on track for a gradual recovery – as weak as it might be – and as long as the risk of inflation reaccelerating remains high, we cannot see the ECB cutting rates by more than a total of 75bp this year.
All in all, the door to a June rate cut is open, even if the June cut is not a done deal yet. In any case, today’s meeting made clear that the first cut will be a very hawkish one.
Commerzbank:
The ECB has unexpectedly clearly indicated a first rate cut in June. A lot will haveto happen to derail the rate cut in June. This is risky because consumer prices haverecently risen much more sharply, not only in the US but also in the eurozone, mainlyas a result of strong wage growth. The ECB will not be able to ignore the unresolvedinflation problem in the long term, which is why we expect far fewer rate cuts in 2025 than most economists.
ABN Amro:
Our own base case is that the ECB will cut policy rates at each and every meeting from June onwards. We take the view that interest rates are currently deeply in restrictive territory. Estimates of the neutral rate are half or less than the current level of the deposit rate. Given that the eurozone economy has been stagnating for more than a year, the only justification for restrictive monetary policy has been above-target inflation. However, the inflation picture is changing fast. Even assuming 125bp of rate cuts this year, monetary policy would still be restrictive at the end of 2024.
J.P. Morgan:
It's tough to make a case for betting against the dollar as prospects for U.S. and eurozone monetary policy diverge. While inflation prints in the U.S. are possibly giving the Fed some reason for pause, the European Central Bank is actually gaining confidence in its inflation outlook.
See a fairly high bar for the ECB not to cut rates. The story of higher U.S. inflation looks set to dominate FX markets and we prefers a long position in the dollar, while current levels are attractive for long duration in European bonds
Deutsche Bank:
The European Central Bank is growing more optimistic that conditions for policy easing are falling into place. No one should be surprised by a rate cut in June. But the question is whether the bank's caution on domestic inflation means back-to-back cuts in June and July are less likely. In its monetary policy statement, the ECB said "domestic price pressures are strong and are keeping services price inflation high". That suggests some of the dialing back of restrictive policy will be more gradual
HSBC:
For a while now, the European Central Bank has essentially pre-committed to an interest-rate cut in June and there is a high bar for this not to be delivered. However, there are a wide range of possible outcomes in the subsequent months, depending on further progress with disinflation.
The increasing likelihood of a prolonged pause by the Federal Reserve poses some problems for ECB policymakers, and elsewhere for that matter. A growing policy divergence could reignite currency volatility and cause FX-driven inflation pressures, in this scenario the ECB may move more gradually than markets currently anticipate
Societe Genérale:
The market assumes we see a June ECB cut but not a June Fed one, in a tailwind for the greenback. Although a number of relevant data points will be released before the monetary decisions, it's fair to say that the news we have had is shifting consensus views about growth, inflation and the Fed in ways which will continue to support the dollar through April/May
MUFG:
Four cuts in total look more plausible if we assume the ECB skips July but then after the summer break cuts at each of the three remaining meetings. The monetary stance in the eurozone is hugely restrictive and inflation has come down far faster than the ECB expected
There is a danger of being too slow to cut. The long-term average (up to the pandemic) of the real policy rates (deposit and refinancing rates) are -0.70% and 0.00% respectively and the level currently is close to a record high (1.6% and 2.1% respectively) -- policy rates need to be cut and 100bps wouldn't be excessive
There is scope for EUR/USD to drop to around 1.0500 but we’re not in the EUR/USD parity camp that appeared to be growing in size
Commenti