📝 Continue to Expect RBNZ 25Bps Hike In November: ANZ

Our OCR forecast remains unchanged: we’ve been clear we don’t expect the RBNZ or the market to come around to our view that more is needed until much later in the year. Indeed, we are likely to see a lower CPI print next week than the RBNZ forecast in its May MPS. We are forecasting a mild recession, but don’t think the economy (and the labour market in particular) is rolling over quite as rapidly as the RBNZ expects; hence our placeholder 25bp hike in November. We’d characterise 5.5% as the RBNZ’s first pass at what’s needed, not necessarily the final word. This forecasting business is too uncertain for anyone to be sure of that.

- ANZ