🛢️💱Canadian Dollar Holds The Highest Sensitivity to Oil: Cable FX Macro

• Here's a table summarizing the approximate 120-day beta (sensitivity) of major G10 currencies to Brent crude oil prices, based on daily close regression analysis over the last 4 months (roughly Nov 2025 to early March 2026).

• Beta here measures how much the currency pair (or index) moves for a 1% change in Brent crude—positive beta means the currency tends to strengthen when oil rises (commodity-linked positive exposure); negative means it weakens or inversely correlates (e.g., via USD strength or risk dynamics).

• An interesting data point is the dollar; here we see the greenback holding a negative beta to crude oil. However, the calculation period is covering the most recent softness in the dollar as most G10 peers post gains vs USD (ex-JPY). Crude oil is also a risk-cyclical asset, perhaps the dollar could be offered when risk-on trades kicked in as oil rose.

• Analysts at Barclays said that a rise of 10% in Brent crude oil could spill into a 1% rise in the dollar on current trading conditions. The Brent benchmark has risen around 17% this week alone. Currently, the Canadian dollar holds the highest sensitivity to crude oil in the group.