🇺🇸Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: U.S. Q1 GDP Adv. Growth Rate

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 04/21/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports

The last revision of fourth quarter U.S. GDP showed the economy expanding by an annualized rate of 2.6%, this was slower than the prior print of 3.2%. Q4 economic output came to sit at the lower end of economists’ forecasts, projections ranged from 2.6% to 3.0%. We remind you that the print is a downward revision from the flash estimate of 2.9%. Household and personal consumption posted some of the largest contributions in the quarter, the former supported the print with 1.01pp, government consumption added 0.65pp. Residential investment extended declines into the end of the year, the sector recorded contractions every quarter of 2022 and took 1.2pp off the release in the 4Q. Looking ahead, the median forecast sees the U.S. economy expanding by 1.2% in 2023 and 0.8% in 2024, while some economists have pencilled a contraction as soon as 2Q. The desk at RBC expects growth to decrease by 1.2% in Q2, UBS pencils a decline of 0.9%, BMO sees output falling by 1.0%. Private investment is seen to be hit the most by UBS, they expect a decline of 3.5% Q/q in Q2 before falling by 6.4% in Q3. UBS sees industrial production contracting over every quarter from 2Q 2023 to 2Q 2024. The projections contrast with the latest Fed SEP which pencils 2023 GDP growth at only 0.4%, this is eight tenths of a percent lower than the Bloomberg median survey of economists.