🇺🇸❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: U.S. June Retail Sales

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 07/14/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports

U.S. May retail volumes rose by 0.3% M/m, this surprised the market consensus of a 0.2% decline. The ex-autos and gas figure increased 0.4%, higher than the estimate of 0.2%, the control group came in line at 0.2%. The largest contributions were recorded in retail and food services, vehicle sales followed. Gasoline station sales recorded the largest downside contribution at -2.6% M/m, this was translated into a 19.9% Y/y decline, the component has recorded a seventh consecutive month of declines. The headline volume $ value is now closer to its record high of $741.5 billion. The June retail data will be interesting as it will come to add to the positive growth picture in the U.S., the recent inflation numbers showed prices continue to cool down while activity remains strong, this has been supporting the idea of a potential soft landing. Analysts at BMO said they welcome the concept of a delayed recession, they noted the chatter began since April retail sales figures came in resilient while PCE data showed progress. Deutsche Bank pointed to double-digit gains in June auto sales, this could support the headline number. ING economists said they expect gas station sales to rebound on the month, however, they expressed caution as weekly same-store sales have turned negative Y/y and consumer credit has started slowing in recent months.