**As seen in Risk In The Week report 05/12/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports
The March Claimant Count Rate ticked higher to 3.9% from 3.8%, the nominal level showed a rise to 1,527.4 from 1,499.2, the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.8% from the prior 3.7%. The U.K. jobless rate is now at the highest since the March-May print. There was no progress recorded in the earnings front, the metric including bonuses advanced by 5.9% in February, this was unchanged from the prior, the ex- bonus figure came at 6.6%. More recently, the BoE released a fresh batch of economic projections, the central bank is now expecting the jobless rate to rise to 3.8% by end of the year, this undershoots economists' expectations of 4.2%. Analysts at UBS said that the June BoE decision is likely to be highly data dependent, as the central bank remains concerned about wage growth and services inflation. UBS pushed forward its rate cut call from November to February and warned that there are risks that rates stay higher for longer. MUFG sees another hike from the BoE and a called for a potential pause in August as more data will help the central bank to confidently hold rates. The desk at ING noted two sets of data from the wages and inflation will be out before the BoE meets again, they reminded us that the BoE’s own data is showing a moderation of wage growth. ING said that if there is progress in wage slowdown going into next month, this could give the BoE a green light for a pause.
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