**As seen in Risk In The Week report 10/13/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports
Australia's August net employment change rebounded to 64.9K from a prior contraction of 14.6K. It is worth mentioning that the June figure received an upward revision to mark up net employment loss at 1.4K. The release surprised the median survey of 25.0K. The unemployment rate came in at 3.7%, this was in line with the consensus and unchanged from the prior month, we have not seen the jobless rate tick above 4.0% since February 2022, and the RBA currently forecasts the metric at 4.0% by the end of this year while economists hold a more optimist view at 3.7%. Both economists and the RBA expect the jobless rate to hit 4.5% by the end of 2024. On wages, economists expect growth to remain hot, this will keep the central bank in check while a deterioration of the labour market could relieve some pressure from the RBA, recent consumer surveys point to a deterioration in confidence. More recently, an ANZ survey showed that Australian job advertisements fell by 0.1% M/m in September, this is the first decline since June. Given firms’ ability to absorb the migration-driven surge in labour supply, the desk at Westpac expects the jobs market to remain tight into year-end, they forecast the September figure in line with the consensus. Westpac added that the labour front is now past its tightest point but it hasn’t slowed down to a material degree, they pencil the September participation rate moving back to 66.9% and the unemployment rate holding at 3.7%.
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